Retirement Shortfall Using a 3% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Using a conservative 3% withdrawal rate requires a larger nest egg; someone needing $50,000/year must save $1.67 million rather than $1.25 million.
How to use this tool
- Enter your expected annual spending in retirement (today's dollars).
- Set a safe withdrawal rate to derive the nest egg you'll need.
- Enter your current savings, annual contributions, return, and years to retirement.
- Read your projected balance and whether you face a shortfall or a surplus.
Dropping the withdrawal rate from 4% to 3% significantly increases the required nest egg, making this comparison valuable for conservative planners.
Frequently asked questions
- How is a retirement shortfall calculated?
- Subtract your projected savings at retirement from the nest egg your spending requires. The target is annual spending divided by your withdrawal rate; the projection compounds your current balance and contributions forward.
- What does a negative shortfall mean?
- A negative shortfall is a surplus — your projected savings exceed what you need. You are on track and have a cushion against weaker-than-expected returns.
- Should I use a real or nominal return?
- Use a real, after-inflation return and express spending in today's dollars. That keeps both sides of the comparison consistent without separately modeling inflation.
- Does this include Social Security?
- No. It only counts your invested savings. If you expect Social Security or a pension, reduce your required spending by that income before entering it, or treat the result as conservative.